Thursday, May 5, 2011

Irrational Exuberance

Just wow...

So far the big winner from the AMD-ATI deal is clearly NVIDIA. Today NVIDIA is worth two times and a half more than it was one year ago, while AMD is worth less than it was before buying ATI!

This is simply amazing, AMD bought a 5 billion dollar company and instead of becoming a 15 billion dollar company NVIDIA was the one that became such company!

I feel the same way about this article as the current price of gold. The sensationalism does not reflect reality "on the ground." So Intel and nVidia basically have bond holders instead of share owners. They have lots of cash on hand, but lots of promises to keep to their new-found bondholders.

Speaking of promises, by the time the Llano fusion cpu launches, it will be more than 5 years since AMD announced its intention of making a true asymmetric "mainstream" processor. And when it does launch, it will be based on the Phenom CPU from 2007 (revised 2009), not Bulldozer; And the GPU side will be based on the Radeon 5000 series, not the 6000 series currently on the market or the next generation of radeons that recently taped out; and it will go into a different socket than Bulldozer. Not only that; the socket for llano may or may not be compatible with Trinty, the Bulldozer based APU that will be released in 2012.

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